Advisory Documents

There’s more than one plausible future: using simple narratives to help ensure the durability of GEF investments

There’s more than one plausible future:  using simple narratives to help ensure the  durability of GEF investments

This STAP brief presents STAP thinking on the use of simple future narratives to design resilient and durable projects. It highlights the importance of considering all drivers of change, such as population, conflict, climate change, and migration, when designing projects. The brief shows that not considering how drivers of change could play out in the future can make project outcomes short-lived, less resilient, or even damaging to the environment and people. An understanding of the drivers and how they interact and unfold in the future can be converted into a small number of simple narratives. Doing this can help develop projects and interventions that are robust to future uncertainty. STAP will prepare guidance on how to create simple future narratives as a follow-up to this brief.